This is a hot topic that always comes up and there’s two ways of looking at this.
The first argument is who but Google could provide you with better information. Wouldn’t Google provide you the best keywords and guidance? Considering Google is going to make money from the ads you publish wouldn’t it make sense for Google to direct you to the proper keywords? In a perfect world yes this might be the perfect answer.
Then you can argue the opposite. Why would Google want to provide entirely accurate search volume information? Many claim that it’s in Google’s best interest to inflate search volumes because it encourages more sales. Google wants to keep you guessing so that you try several different keywords and when they don’t payoff you always comeback to try again.
So what is the best way to find keywords? There isn’t a perfect solution to this process but before you settle on a keyword do some general research to make sure it provides the search volume you are looking for. Do a search for the keyword using both local and organic results. What do you see? Where does it place?



